The prediction market space is more crowded than it’s been in years. Polymarket returned to the US, Kalshi crossed $43 billion in 2025 volume, Robinhood launched its own hub, and a handful of newer platforms (Manifold, ForecastEx, FanDuel Predicts) are competing for attention. Here’s how the major platforms actually compare in May 2026 — ranked, with the trade-offs that don’t fit on a marketing page.
Quick rankings
- Polymarket — Best for serious traders. Highest liquidity, widest market variety, best sign-up bonus ($20).
- Kalshi — Best for US users who want regulatory clarity. CFTC-regulated, all 50 states, simple bank funding.
- Manifold Markets — Best for learning. Free play money, no KYC, thousands of community markets.
- Robinhood Prediction Markets — Best for existing Robinhood users. Kalshi-powered, mobile-only.
- Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader — Best for institutional/sophisticated retail. Brokerage-grade infrastructure.
- PredictIt — Best for politics-only users. Academic platform, $850 position caps.
The full comparison
| Platform | Money | Sign-up bonus | US states | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | USDC/pUSD | $20 (BOOST20) | Most (9 restricted) | Volume traders |
| Kalshi | USD | $10 (GRINDERS) | All 50 | Regulatory clarity |
| Manifold | Mana (play) | M$2,000 free | Most | Learning |
| Robinhood | USD | $5-200 stock | All 50 | App users |
| IBKR ForecastTrader | USD | None | All 50 | Sophisticated |
| PredictIt | USD | None | All 50 | Politics only |
| FanDuel Predicts | USD | $25 | Limited | Sports fans |
| DraftKings Predictions | USD | Varies | Limited | Sports fans |
1. Polymarket — Best overall
Polymarket is the largest prediction market by volume globally, and as of late 2025 it’s available to US users through a separate CFTC-regulated platform. The international version remains the deepest pool of liquidity, with thousands of active markets covering politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, and culture.
Strengths:
- Highest liquidity in the industry
- Widest market variety — listings appear within hours of major news
- $20 sign-up bonus (largest in the space)
- Maker rebates on limit orders, fee-free geopolitics markets
Weaknesses:
- Crypto-native interface can intimidate first-time users
- US version still in invite-only/waitlist mode for some users
- Not available in 9 US states (AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, OH)
Sign-up bonus: $20 with code BOOST20 or SKENS. Skips the US waitlist. See our Polymarket promo code page.
2. Kalshi — Best US-regulated option
Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated prediction market that’s been operating since 2021. It crossed $43 billion in trading volume in 2025 and is integrated with Robinhood’s prediction markets hub. If you’re in the US and want a platform without legal ambiguity, this is it.
Strengths:
- Available in all 50 states (with some sports market restrictions)
- USD funding via bank transfer, debit card, Venmo, PayPal — no crypto required
- Pays 3.25-4% APY on idle balances
- Multiple partner promo codes all triggering the same $10 bonus
Weaknesses:
- Smaller bonus than Polymarket ($10 vs $20)
- Curated market selection — fewer obscure markets than Polymarket international
- $10 requires placing $10 in trades (no instant bonus)
Sign-up bonus: $10 after $10 in trades. Codes: GRINDERS, COVERS, GOAL, CBSSPORTS, and others. See our Kalshi guide.
3. Manifold Markets — Best for learning
Manifold is play-money only, which sounds like a limitation but is actually its biggest feature. Because there’s no real money involved, Manifold can host markets on topics real-money platforms can’t legally touch — niche scientific outcomes, internet drama, hyper-local events, you name it.
Strengths:
- Free to use, M$2,000 starting balance
- No KYC, no deposit, no waiting
- Thousands of community-created markets covering topics you won’t find elsewhere
- Best place to learn prediction market mechanics without financial risk
Weaknesses:
- No cash withdrawals — Mana is virtual
- Less price accuracy than real-money markets (people care less when no money’s on the line)
- Some market quality issues — anyone can create markets, including poorly worded ones
See our Manifold guide for details.
4. Robinhood Prediction Markets
Robinhood entered prediction markets through a Kalshi partnership in March 2025. The contracts you trade on Robinhood are sourced from Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated exchange — meaning you’re getting Kalshi’s markets in Robinhood’s interface.
Strengths:
- Available in all 50 states
- If you already use Robinhood, no new account needed
- $5-200 free stock on signup (usually $5-8) usable for trading
Weaknesses:
- App-only — no web interface for prediction markets
- Smaller bonus than going directly to Polymarket or Kalshi
- Markets are sourced from Kalshi, so you’re not getting anything Kalshi doesn’t offer
See our Robinhood guide.
5. Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader
For sophisticated retail and institutional users, IBKR’s ForecastTrader integrates event contracts directly into your brokerage account. Available in all 50 states with the same KYC you’d use for any IBKR product.
Best for: People who already use IBKR for stocks/options and want event contracts in the same account.
Not great for: First-time prediction market users — the IBKR interface is built for traders, not casual users.
6. PredictIt
The original US prediction market, run by Victoria University of Wellington (yes, an academic project). Focused almost exclusively on US politics. Position caps of $850 per market — low for serious traders, but reasonable for casual political junkies.
Best for: Political markets specifically, especially long-running ones.
Not great for: Anything other than politics. No sports, very little economics, no sign-up bonus.
7. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions
Sportsbook-launched prediction markets that came online in late 2025 (FanDuel Predicts via CME Group, DraftKings via its own infrastructure). Both are still building out their offerings.
FanDuel Predicts: $25 sign-up bonus with no deposit or trade requirement. Available in most states for financial markets, sports limited to states without legal sports betting.
DraftKings Predictions: Promo varies by state. Market selection is thinner than Kalshi or Polymarket.
Both are worth checking if you already have accounts at those sportsbooks, but neither has the depth of Polymarket or Kalshi yet.
What to actually use
For most users, the right answer is “more than one”:
- Start with Manifold to learn the mechanics for free
- Open Polymarket for the deepest markets and best bonus
- Add Kalshi for US-regulated peace of mind and bank funding
- Ignore the rest unless you have a specific reason (politics-only → PredictIt; existing Robinhood user → Robinhood)
You can legitimately claim sign-up bonuses on all four. They’re separate companies with separate referral programs.
What about [other platform]?
The prediction market space has dozens of smaller platforms. Most are either too small to bother with, region-locked to a single country, or wrapping access to one of the major platforms above. We focus on the ones that have meaningful volume and US availability. If a new platform crosses the threshold of being broadly useful, we add it to this list.