Frequently Asked

A prediction market is a platform where users trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The price of the contract reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability — a $0.62 share implies 62% probability. Read our full how it works guide.

Three main differences: (1) You trade against other users, not against a house, so there’s no built-in margin against you. (2) Prices reflect probabilities directly rather than odds with vig baked in. (3) You can exit positions before resolution by selling your shares to other users.

Federally in the US, yes — CFTC-regulated event contracts are classified as financial derivatives. State-level rules vary. As of mid-2026, Polymarket is unavailable in 9 states (AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, OH). Kalshi is available in all 50 states with some sports market restrictions. See our US legal status guide.

No. Maximum loss is the cost of your shares. There’s no leverage or margin in prediction markets the way there is in crypto futures. If you spend $50 on shares and lose, you’re out $50 — nothing more.

Often more accurate than polls or expert predictions, especially close to event resolution. Academic research has consistently found prediction markets outperform alternative forecasting methods. The mechanism: when people put their own money behind their predictions, wishful thinking gets priced out.

Yes. Every code on the site is one we’ve personally tested and re-verify weekly. If a code stops working, we pull it from the site within 24 hours.

Some platforms (especially Kalshi) run partner referral programs with many media outlets, each with their own code. All of them trigger the same sign-up bonus. We list the working ones so users can pick whichever they prefer.

No. The codes work whether you arrive here or via Google directly. We earn affiliate commissions when you sign up via our links, but you get the same bonus either way. We’re transparent about this on every page.

Yes. Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Robinhood, and other platforms are separate companies. You can legitimately claim a sign-up bonus on each one. Many active prediction market users have accounts on multiple platforms.

The most common cause is entering the code after creating an account rather than during signup. Codes have to be entered during initial registration. If that’s not the issue, the code may have been rotated. Contact us and we’ll verify the current code.

For most US users: Polymarket (best bonus) and Kalshi (most regulatory clarity). For learning without risk: Manifold (free play money). For existing Robinhood users: their prediction markets hub. See our platform comparison.

They’re separate products. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated, funded with USD through registered intermediaries, requires full KYC, and is available only to US residents in eligible states. Polymarket international is crypto-native, has lighter KYC, and is geoblocked from the US. They have separate liquidity pools.

Don’t. Polymarket has intensified geographic enforcement, blockchain transparency makes evasion provable, and account closures result in lost funds. For US users in restricted states, use Kalshi or Robinhood instead.

Deposits and withdrawals are typically free on the platform side. Per-trade fees vary: Polymarket charges 0% on maker (limit) orders and variable taker fees up to $1.80 per 100 shares; Kalshi charges roughly 0.1% per trade; Manifold has minimal fees on Mana trading. See our fees guide.

PredictionWolf is an independent affiliate site covering prediction markets. We earn commissions when readers sign up through our referral links. See our about page and disclosure for more.

We re-verify every code every Monday. If a code stops working, we update within 24 hours. The “Last verified” date on each promo code page reflects this.

Affiliate commissions when readers sign up through our links. The same bonus you’d get directly from the platform; we get a small finder’s fee from the platform for sending you their way. We don’t take payment for editorial coverage and we don’t publish codes that don’t work.

We’re transparent about being an affiliate site, we re-test every code weekly, we update outdated information when platforms change, and we don’t oversell platforms or hide drawbacks. If we’re wrong about something, tell us and we’ll fix it.

Yes. We’re always looking for genuine reader questions. Email us via the contact page with your question and we’ll consider it for a future post.