Polymarket is a prediction market platform where you trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, sports, crypto prices, geopolitical events — and the price of each contract reflects the crowd’s collective estimate of how likely that outcome is. If a contract for “Candidate X wins the 2026 midterms” is trading at $0.62, the market is implying a 62% chance of that outcome. If you buy the contract and the candidate wins, every share pays out $1. If they lose, the share pays $0. That’s the basic mechanic. The interesting part is why this works as well as it does, and what’s changed about Polymarket specifically in the last year.
The core idea: prices as probabilities
In a traditional sportsbook, you place a bet against the house. The house sets the odds and bakes in a margin (often called “vig” or “juice”) so they make money no matter who wins. Prediction markets work differently. There’s no house. You’re trading directly with other users, and the price moves as people buy and sell — exactly like a stock exchange.
Every market on Polymarket has two sides: “Yes” and “No.” If you think an event will happen, you buy Yes shares. If you think it won’t, you buy No shares. Yes and No prices always sum to roughly $1, because exactly one of them will pay out.
For example, in a market like “Will the Fed cut rates in June?”:
- Yes shares trading at $0.30 = market thinks 30% probability
- No shares trading at $0.70 = market thinks 70% probability
If you buy 100 Yes shares at $0.30, you spend $30. If the Fed cuts rates, those shares pay $1 each — you collect $100 and profit $70. If the Fed doesn’t cut, the shares are worthless and you lose your $30.
This pricing-as-probability mechanism is what makes prediction markets useful beyond just betting. The prices themselves are forecasts, and academic research has found them to be more accurate than polls or expert predictions in many domains.
What you can bet on
Polymarket runs markets across several categories:
- Politics: Elections, legislation, geopolitical events
- Sports: Major leagues (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) and tournaments
- Crypto: Token prices, ETF approvals, on-chain events
- Economics: Fed decisions, inflation prints, recession calls
- Culture and tech: Movie box office, awards, product launches
- World events: Wars, treaties, election outcomes globally
Markets range from short-term (today’s game, this week’s announcement) to long-term (year-end price targets, 2028 election outcomes). Volume varies wildly — major election markets can have hundreds of millions in volume, while obscure markets might have a few thousand.
The two versions of Polymarket in 2026
This is where most outdated guides will steer you wrong. As of 2026, there are effectively two separate Polymarket products:
The international platform is the original version. It’s crypto-native — you connect a wallet, deposit USDC (or as of April 2026, a token called pUSD that’s backed 1:1 by USDC), and trade. There’s no traditional KYC for small activity; the platform restricts access by IP address rather than identity verification. This is the version that has the most liquidity and the widest variety of markets.
The US platform launched in late 2025 after Polymarket acquired the regulated derivatives exchange QCEX and obtained CFTC oversight. It’s a separate product with separate liquidity. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated, requires full KYC (government ID, SSN), and is funded through registered futures commission merchants. The international exchange has no KYC, accepts direct crypto deposits, and has significantly more liquidity and market variety.
State-level legal availability varies for the US version. As of 2026, Polymarket is not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH, with active legal challenges in several of those states. See our complete US legal status guide for the current picture.
How a trade actually works
Once you have an account funded, the trading flow looks like this:
- Browse markets. The Polymarket homepage shows trending markets by volume. You can filter by category or search for specific topics.
- Click into a market. Each market page shows the current Yes/No prices, the order book, recent trades, and a description of how the market resolves.
- Choose Yes or No. Decide which side you’re taking and how much you want to spend.
- Pick an order type. A market order fills immediately at the best available price. A limit order sits on the order book at a price you specify, only filling if someone matches it. Limit orders are usually cheaper because they qualify as “maker” orders.
- Hold or trade out. You don’t have to wait for the market to resolve to exit a position. If the price moves in your favor, you can sell to lock in profit. If it moves against you, you can sell to cut losses.
- Resolution. When the event happens, Polymarket resolves the market based on a defined resolution source. Winning shares pay $1; losing shares pay $0.
The “trade out before resolution” point is important and often missed by new users. You’re not stuck holding until the event happens. Polymarket markets are continuously tradable, so a 50-cent share you bought in March might be worth 80 cents by April if news moves in your favor — and you can sell it then for an immediate gain without waiting for the actual outcome.
The fee structure (briefly)
Fees on Polymarket changed meaningfully in early 2026. The short version:
- Deposits and withdrawals: Free on the platform side. You may pay third-party fees if you fund through a debit card, but a direct on-chain USDC transfer avoids those.
- Maker orders (limit orders that don’t immediately fill): Zero fees, plus eligibility for rebates.
- Taker orders (market orders or limit orders that fill instantly): Variable fees based on category, peaking at $1.80 per 100 shares in crypto markets and as low as $0.75 per 100 shares in sports as of the March 2026 rollout.
For a deeper breakdown, see our full guide on Polymarket fees.
What you actually need to start
To use the international platform:
- A crypto wallet that supports the Polygon network (MetaMask is common) — though Polymarket also supports email signup with an embedded wallet
- USDC to deposit (or any major crypto, which Polymarket auto-converts)
- Access from a non-restricted region
To use the US platform:
- US residency in a non-restricted state
- Government-issued ID for KYC
- Social Security Number
- A funding source that connects through approved futures commission merchants
- Currently: an invite, since the US platform is still in waitlist phase as of mid-2026
Common questions
Is Polymarket gambling?
Legally, this is the central dispute. Polymarket and the CFTC argue that event contracts are financial derivatives, not gambling. Several US state regulators argue the opposite. The answer affects which laws apply, which is why availability varies by state.
Can I lose more than I deposit?
No. Maximum loss is the cost of your shares. If you spend $30 buying Yes shares and the answer is No, you lose $30. There’s no leverage, no margin, no liquidation in the way crypto futures work.
How do I know markets resolve fairly?
Each market lists its resolution source in the description before you bet. Polymarket uses a decentralized oracle system (UMA’s Optimistic Oracle) for resolution, with a dispute window during which incorrect resolutions can be challenged. Disputes are rare but do happen on edge-case markets with ambiguous wording.
How long until my winnings are available?
Once a market resolves, winning shares are credited to your balance immediately. Withdrawing to your wallet or bank takes minutes to hours depending on the network and method.
Are winnings taxable?
In most jurisdictions, yes. The specific treatment varies — some countries treat prediction market gains as gambling income, others as capital gains. Consult a tax professional in your jurisdiction.
Getting started
If you want to try Polymarket, the signup takes about two minutes. New users can claim a $20 bonus by entering a promo code during registration — see our Polymarket promo code guide for the current verified codes and step-by-step instructions.
Last updated: May 2026. Polymarket’s structure and availability change frequently due to ongoing regulatory developments. Always verify current state on Polymarket’s official site before making decisions.