Manifold Markets doesn’t run a traditional promo code system — but new users get M$1,000 in free play-money automatically on signup, plus another M$1,000 if they register via a referral link. It’s the easiest sign-up bonus in the prediction market space because there’s no deposit, no KYC, and no trading requirement.
What is Manifold Markets?
Manifold is a play-money prediction market launched in 2021. Users trade on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, sports, scientific results, internet drama, anything — using a virtual currency called Mana (M$). Mana can’t be converted to cash, which is exactly why Manifold can host markets that real-money platforms can’t legally offer.
If you want to learn how prediction markets work without putting actual money on the line, Manifold is the best place to do it. Once you’re comfortable with the mechanics, you can move to Polymarket or Kalshi for real-money trading.
How the sign-up bonus works
There are actually two separate bonuses, and they stack:
- M$1,000 starting balance: Every new account gets M$1,000 in Mana automatically credited on signup. No action required beyond verifying your phone number.
- M$1,000 referral bonus: If you sign up using someone’s referral link (like the link on this page), Manifold credits an additional M$1,000 to your account. The person who referred you also gets M$1,000.
That’s M$2,000 total — enough to participate meaningfully in several markets without ever depositing anything.
How to sign up
- Click a referral link from someone (like ours above, or any other Manifold user’s link).
- Sign up with Google or Apple ID — no email/password creation needed.
- Pick at least three markets you’re interested in to personalize your feed.
- Verify your phone number. This unlocks the full M$1,000 sign-up bonus.
- You’re done. You can immediately start placing trades on any market.
What can you actually do with M$1,000?
A meaningful amount. Most Manifold markets have prices between M$1 and M$1,000 per share, so M$2,000 lets you take real positions on multiple events. You can also:
- Create your own markets (costs M$100 to launch one)
- Earn more Mana through correct predictions, daily streaks, sharing markets, and referrals
- Buy items in the Mana Shop — streak freezes, profile decorations, and other cosmetics
- Compete on leaderboards for highest Mana balance, best calibration, etc.
How Manifold compares to Polymarket and Kalshi
Manifold isn’t trying to compete with Polymarket or Kalshi on the same dimensions. It’s a different product entirely.
| Platform | Money type | Best for | KYC required |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold | Play money (Mana) | Learning, niche markets, fun | No |
| Polymarket | Crypto (USDC/pUSD) | High-liquidity events, profit | Yes (US) / Light (Intl) |
| Kalshi | USD | Regulated US trading | Yes |
| Robinhood | USD | Mobile-first US trading | Yes |
Manifold has thousands of active markets covering topics you won’t find anywhere else — predictions on specific GitHub issues closing, AI model benchmarks, individual scientific paper outcomes, you name it. The trade-off for that breadth is that prices are less accurate than real-money markets since users have no financial stake in being right.
Can you withdraw winnings?
No, with one historical exception. Manifold operated a “Sweepcash” sweepstakes layer for a while that allowed real-money redemptions in some US states, but that was discontinued. The core Mana economy is purely virtual.
For users who want cash returns on accurate predictions, Polymarket or Kalshi are the platforms to use. Manifold is for learning, entertainment, and serious forecasters who care more about being right than getting paid.